TiVo Community Forums Archives - Ultimate TV Commercials Help Tivo!

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Ultimate TV Commercials Help Tivo!
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Posted by: klknoles

I'm sure this has been said before by many, but...

They may not do much good for the DirecTivo's sales, but those superior Ultimate TV commercials are getting the word out about just what PVR's can do. After seeing those slick ads and only rather obscure mention of DirecTV requirements, I have to wonder how many folks go to their local electronics place to check it out only to find out they need DirecTV and from there find out about SA's (and that SA's can record from both DirecTV & antenna), and decide to buy a Tivo SA instead. Tivo has a very valuable thing right now - a near lock on the market of PVR's that can record off cable and antenna (now that Replay's so unpopular) - but they've done a shoddy ad campaign thus far, which I'm sure is responsible for some of the thus far low adoption rate. I'm convinced that Microsoft is helping to undo that damage by unintentionally plugging the competition. http://www.avsforum.com/ubbtivo/smile.gif

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Kevin L. Knoles
klknoles@fgi.net

Posted by: pjenkins

kevin,
i think you are right, to a degree. but, i still think the price point for either device is too high right now for mass adoption. with tivo and philips both announcing the capabilities for lower-priced units, i think then you will start seeing sales pick up. the $399 price point for DirecTivo and UTV plus the monthly charges are too much for joe-six-pack, regardless of the commercials.

all IMHO.
paul

Posted by: MikeCG

UTV (and all PVR) commercials raise public awareness of the genre. They can't help but create demand for both the DirecTivo and the SA Tivo, even if that demand is limited to consumers who can afford the high price point.

Posted by: interactiveTV

The UTV commercials benefit the PVR as they increase consumer awareness. How much Tivo benefits will be affected by a few variables including the resurgence of the News Corp/Direct TV tie-in rumor

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/200...scorp_dc_1.html

With Tivo's expectations of D-Tivo, this could be devastating, especially as the rumors have UltimateTV becoming a News Corp/DirecTV product, thrown in by Microsoft along with the cash.

We shall see. It is only a possible and maybe even a probable but that itsn't a done deal.

_ITV

Posted by: jasonl99

quote:
Originally posted by interactiveTV:
The UTV commercials benefit the PVR as they increase consumer awareness. How much Tivo benefits will be affected by a few variables including the resurgence of the News Corp/Direct TV tie-in rumor

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/200...scorp_dc_1.html

With Tivo's expectations of D-Tivo, this could be devastating, especially as the rumors have UltimateTV becoming a News Corp/DirecTV product, thrown in by Microsoft along with the cash.

We shall see. It is only a possible and maybe even a probable but that itsn't a done deal.

_ITV

I'm not so sure why some people consider this 'devastating.' DirecTV has fewer than 10% of the entire cable/dbs market, which even in the worst possible 'doom-and-gloom' scenario means that there's still 90% of the market to capture. I'd take a long, hard look at digital cable again if DirecTV didn't continue to fully support third-party systems like the DirecTiVo.

The Time-Warner/AOL deal is also big for TiVo. Let's face it, AOL has 22+ million U.S. users who, for the most part, are quite happy with their service. Starting this fall/winter, they'll be able to buy an AOLTV box that gives them webTV-like internet access, full TiVo functionality, and who knows what else (I'm sure we'll be nearing version 2.5 of the software by then).

They also have 13 million cable subscribers, 3 million more than DirecTV. And they have a three year exclusive agreement to provide PVR software for AOL/TW's cable boxes.

itv, in the past, you've put down such numbers and agreements as hogwash. I wonder what you'd say if UTV signed a three-year exclusive agreement with DirecTV? Because that's what TiVo has, today, with AOL/TW.

Posted by: interactiveTV

quote:
Originally posted by jasonl99:
I'm not so sure why some people consider this 'devastating.' DirecTV has fewer than 10% of the entire cable/dbs market, which even in the worst possible 'doom-and-gloom' scenario means that there's still 90% of the market to capture. I'd take a long, hard look at digital cable again if DirecTV didn't continue to fully support third-party systems like the DirecTiVo.

Is every US household with a car the target market for a Jaguar? Or a minivan? Or a Ford Escort?

The fact is that the 10 million or so Direct customers fit the PVR demographic very well. Much better than the 40 million or so BASIC cable subscribers who won't even pony up for a more extended tier of cable -- forget pay channels. $10 a month for PVR? Get real.

You can play with the numbers all you want but 66 million cable homes versus 10 million Direct homes and all the the market studies would show where the best possible sales are. You can cut that cable number in half because 30 million of them don't want anything more. Nothing.

quote:
Originally posted by jasonl99:

The Time-Warner/AOL deal is also big for TiVo. Let's face it, AOL has 22+ million U.S. users who, for the most part, are quite happy with their service. Starting this fall/winter, they'll be able to buy an AOLTV box that gives them webTV-like internet access, full TiVo functionality, and who knows what else (I'm sure we'll be nearing version 2.5 of the software by then).

They also have 13 million cable subscribers, 3 million more than DirecTV. And they have a three year exclusive agreement to provide PVR software for AOL/TW's cable boxes.

I am very familiar with the AOL TV set-top as well as the plans to introduce the Tivo/AOL TV. That product is basically what UTV is today (combined WebTV with PVR).

Regardless of the AOL deal with Tivo, losing Direct would be devastating. Spin it however you want but going from (using your numbers) 23 million possible audience to 13 million would suck.

quote:
Originally posted by jasonl99:
itv, in the past, you've put down such numbers and agreements as hogwash. I wonder what you'd say if UTV signed a three-year exclusive agreement with DirecTV? Because that's what TiVo has, today, with AOL/TW.

Let's count up the agreements that aren't worth spit. Quokka's deal with NBC doesn't seem to be worth all that much right now, does it?

What Tivo has right now with AOL is a signed piece of paper. I don't see a product and I see some serious problems in getting Tivo to the point where the product would even matter. Comparing UTV -- with Microsoft and its $30 billion or so in cash -- with Tivo and its desperation to keep in business by laying off employees, getting AOL to free up restricted cash, and cutting marketing -- well, there is NO comparison.

And UTV signing a deal with Direct isn't what we are talking about here. We're talking Direct possible (this is all speculation) taking over the UTV brand and selling the product, possibly allowing ANY of the STB manufacturers to add it to their product line. Pretty important stuff.

Go and look at what Tivo's estimates were for fiscal 2002 sales of the D-Tivo product.

Now, go ask yourself what happens if those sales don't happen.

Tivo numbers are already down 40% or so from last year's forecast for this year. If you cut them another 30%...

you wouldn't call that devastating?

But Tivo has that signed piece of paper. Big deal. D-Tivo sales are here NOW. The AOL deal matters when a product is out -- and that product has already been pushed back twice.

Tivo needs sales NOW. A signed piece of paper is wonderful in 2002/2003 when those boxes actually matter. I think Tivo is a little bit more concerned with the next 18 months. And if you cut Direct out of the estimates for Q3 and on, things look ugly.

_ITV

Posted by: pjenkins

one thing i'd like to add to interactivetv's points.

DirecTV has been rumored to be dropping extra reciever fees to encourage complete cable replacement and increased usage of DirecTV. If News Corp gets UTV and DirecTV, Murdoch has already stated his desire to include/give away technology to people.

So, in this scenario, I could easily see the $9.99 monthly UTV fee going away. Then, by comparison, you'd have a Tivo w/monthly fee versus UTV with none and UTV backed by DirecTV itself. Sounds like a major deal to me if it goes down...

Pure speculation on my part, but I think you could make this reach given the players and their past comments...

paul

Posted by: Raspewtin

Doesn't DirecTV own a chunk of Tivo? Why would they hurt their own investment?

Posted by: ShiningBengal

All kinds of players own or have marketing agreements with TiVo, including some of the major TV networks. No one really knows where PTV is going at this point, but there will be a lot more losers than winners in the long run.

I think that like others, DirecTV is hedging its bets on how the industry shakes out.

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Ignore them, m'dear: They're beneath your dignity.

Posted by: interactiveTV

quote:
Originally posted by Raspewtin:
Doesn't DirecTV own a chunk of Tivo? Why would they hurt their own investment?

The few million DirecTV invested in Tivo is peanuts. Microsoft, according to reports, is willing to buy $5 billion of Hughes stock for Murdoch.

When looking at a deal with global ramifications, a price in the tens of billions, and players whose total value, when added, exceeds $500 billion...

a few million dollars invested in Tivo isn't even a second thought let alone a first one in terms of this deal.

Anyone wonder if the direct/Tivo deal has a change of control clause? I don't

_ITV