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Tivo will die!!! PC Mag attacks TiVo again!!!!
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Posted by: ClamChowder

This is outrageous! Another attack on tivo by pc magazine.

TiVo Will Die
By Jim Louderback
March 18, 2004

It's always hard to write an obituary, especially when the subject is still alive. It's especially hard for me, because I love the little guy like a brother. But, alas, TiVo will die.

I was one of the first reviewers to get my hands on an early TiVo box. I compared TiVo with ReplayTV, and although I really wanted to like ReplayTV, TiVo won my heart over.

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,1759,1550761,00.asp

Posted by: DrStrange

Not all of it's right, but the conclusion is valid. Without an integrated cable DVR, and without an eventual HD cable DVR, Tivo will get killed by cable companies own DVR offerings.

Posted by: MichaelK

some journalist. He actually has one good premise in there- that the cable companies with their cheaper alternatives are an issue, but thos other points are stupid, his first complaint is a beef about the analog to digital to analog conversion required in the stand alone boxes, he even mentions the directivo and the HD directivo but just keeps ranting about the analog conversions- strange.

But if you can bother reasing through to the last page, you find his nasty motovation. Tivo apparently overcharged him $14 bucks last month and he had to wait on hold to resolve it. So he decided to extract revenge by calling them arrogent and writing a 5 page article about how they will die. WHat a scumbag excuse for a journalist. I wonder if he writes 5 pages of how McDonalds will die when they forget his barbecue sauce for his chicken nuggets when he goes through the drive through?

Posted by: dswallow

Do people still actually read PC Magazine? There's so many better places online for reviews of hardware and software, what else is PC Magazine good for anymore?

Posted by: Doh

quote:
Originally posted by dswallow
Do people still actually read PC Magazine? There's so many better places online for reviews of hardware and software, what else is PC Magazine good for anymore?

I'm curious, Doug, what sites would you recommend?

Posted by: Rcrew

quote:
Originally posted by DrStrange
Not all of it's right, but the conclusion is valid. Without an integrated cable DVR, and without an eventual HD cable DVR, Tivo will get killed by cable companies own DVR offerings.

I wouldn't immediately concede that point. It seems to me there's enough intellectual property owned by TiVo that alternative PVRs might not function well enough to supplant TiVo.

In my perfect world, although I'd personally not retreat to cable, I could eventually see cable PVRs "Powered by TiVo".

Posted by: ronbo

quote:
Originally posted by dswallow
Do people still actually read PC Magazine? There's so many better places online for reviews of hardware and software, what else is PC Magazine good for anymore?

It's easier to take into the crapper than a laptop.

Posted by: ZeoTiVo

quote:
Originally posted by Doh
I'm curious, Doug, what sites would you recommend?

google -- "productYouWantInfoOn reviews"

Posted by: dswallow

quote:
Originally posted by Doh
I'm curious, Doug, what sites would you recommend?

I wish I kept a list... I seem to just sorta find them when I need to.

Some that I can think of...

www.anandtech.com
www.tomshardware.com
www.sharkyextreme.com
www.hardocp.com
www.gamingnexus.com

Posted by: jasonl99

I really like Jim Louderback, and he's been a vocal TiVo supporter for some time. Hes got some very valid points. However, things don't happen in a vaccum.

First, DirecTV will charge $1,000 initially because they can. There's a relatively decent size base of installed DTiVo users who are chomping at the bit to move to HDTV, and will pay anything for it. I'm right on the edge - but I might try to hold off until a bit before the Super Bowl.

Secondly, this is a DTiVo box only. Jim doesn't know what's up TiVo's sleeve for a standalone box. Even if TiVo had one ready to go, there's nowhere near critical mass yet. Besides, I can watch HDTV now, but not with TiVo, and guess which I choose: Standard Def TiVo. I'd rather watch time-shifted shows at my convenience than HDTV at the networks convenience.

Jim also mentions that the cable companies are going to come out with the boxes for $10 a month. What he fails to mention is that it's $10 a month for the box, another $9.95 a month for service, and another $10 premium for HDTV service. In a year or two, TiVo might release a standalone HDTV recorder that, wonder of wonders, costs $399 and records pristine broadcasts with a simple antenna. Imagine that!

I wholeheartedly agree with Jim's comment about the decline in service from TiVo, though I'm coming at it from a DirecTiVo users now. It used to be a lot of fun here, bantering with TiVo employees about new features, constantly being given hints about new features, and being invited into beta tests. As a DirecTiVo user, I've now gone two years without a significant change in the functionality of the software. That quite honestly sucks. I know that DirecTV chooses when new updates are available, but doesn't that just indicate an inability of TiVo management to convince DirecTV that software upgrades are [orange jump suit mode]a good thing?[/orange jump suit mode]

There are unquestionably a lot of uknowns, but TiVo would have to make mistakes on a number of fronts to "die."

Posted by: Doh

quote:
Originally posted by ZeoTiVo
google -- "productYouWantInfoOn reviews"

I do try that, but I don't know that it's always the easiest/best way to go.

thanks for the suggestions, Doug.

Posted by: dswallow

quote:
Originally posted by Doh
I do try that, but I don't know that it's always the easiest/best way to go.

thanks for the suggestions, Doug.

After a while of visiting online review forums, you'll start to get a feel of who does good reviews and who are the gamers just doing them to get free hardware to play with for a month. Quite a few sites exist that do pretty thorough sytematic reviews of everything they get their hands on.

Sometimes I've found them via reference on slashdot.org, sometimes through postings in other forums, and sometimes just through a google search when I'm in need of a particular piece of hardware. It can be a lot to wade through sometimes, but I don't usually see the same level of coverage by PC Magazine, nor with the same level of attention to detail with regard to covering quirks or other problems. Some of these folks put the hardware through a lot of testing. It's impressive.

Posted by: sbaguru

While many points are valid in the article, much to my dismay, I have a solution. Make a HD Direct TV/Tivo receiver with a duilt in DVD burner that will keep the signal digital. Currently I have a Direct TV Receiver and a Sony DVD burner to archive shows. THe only problem is shows broadcast in Dolby Digital as DVD burners don't have digital inputs (thats another can of worms). I have to run an analog audio signal from the Direct TV unit directly to the DVD burner bypassing my reciever which will not downmix the dolby digital signal to analog. As the article stated, the key to the future is digital to digital without needless analog conversion. If Tivo can act quickly to make this product and equally important make a stand alone HD tuner/Tivo/DVD burner to capture over the air HD the same way they might grab enough market share to survive if they wise up and keep the pricing compititive with other products and gain market share. I would hate for Tivo to become like Beta max. A better technology that died because of marketing reasons.

Andy
Tivo Addict since 1999. Two Direct TV/Tivo units, given 6 as gifts.

Posted by: ZeoTiVo

you know - in regards to no new features-

the NYT article mentioned how TiVo founders thought they would make a DVR -- sell a few thousand adn then move on to home media center products.

It looks to me like they are following that path except the few thousand turned into a few million:) . So it still definitely looks like TiVoToGo and HMO etc.. are the features that will be concentrated on.

TruthInPosting statement - I would love and could already use negative padding but anything else on strictly DVR functionality is not needed by me. Come on TiVoToGo

Posted by: Chris Gerhard

No doubt that TiVo needs to partner with cable companies to be an enormous success but death isn't a certainty if it doesn't happen. A digital tuner PVR for digital OTA along with DirecTV PVRs are still going to be a big market. Ten million customers or so is the potential market and that should be enough to survive.

Chris

Posted by: grecorj

Actually, the author, Jim Louderback, is wrong about which PVR Walt Mossberg of the WSJ favored -- in a Feb 2001 review Mossberg picked UltimateTV over the DTiVo (which at the time only had 1 active tuner), citing 2 tuners, a better UI and a better remote. I don't think I've *ever* seen a Mossberg review of Replay, and I read his columns religiously.

Of course, maybe JL's only talking about personal conversations with Mossberg, but it still struck me as odd.

Posted by: grecorj

Further, recent statements by TiVo executives kind of make this a weak third point:

quote:
The problem is that Murdoch is a rapacious cost-cutter, squeezing margins and hunting for profits at every turn. He has already moved to consolidate the fractured DirecTV set-top market—where more than ten consumer electronics vendors build their own branded boxes—into one (presumably cheaper) look and feel. The next step will be for Murdoch to oust TiVo in favor of a lower-cost and less useful but cheaper PVR. And when that happens, you can kiss poor TiVo goodbye.

Posted by: kitsap

quote:
Originally posted by grecorj
Of course, maybe JL's only talking about personal conversations with Mossberg, but it still struck me as odd.

My impression of that comparison was that Loudermilk was simply trying to boost his credibility by claiming that Mossberg would bother giving him the time of day. While that impression might have been unfair, he lost any benefit of the doubt at the end of the article, when he whined about how Tivo didn't give him special treatment because he's A Godlike Media Person, but instead just treated him as regular civilian. :rolleyes:

Posted by: dugbug

Look guys,

I know everyone here loves the product -- to the point of advocating it religiously at times.

But TIVO is in a world of hurt. My cable company is running ads for their new PVR everywhere. I have never seen a TIVO ad. Ever.

Who wanders behind the camera section of best buy to see a small tv hooked up and a web-tv looking box next to it and say "wow, show me what this is?".

The article was reasonable: This is business. The cable companies with their captured audience have built their own boxes and are marketing them relentlessly.

I can argue for hours why the Amiga was better than mac or pc back in the day, but business does not follow logic.

Posted by: OzarkLad

quote:
Originally posted by grecorj
Mossberg picked UltimateTV over the DTiVo

What ever happened to UltimateTV? Is it still around, or did it die, or re-incarnate?

Posted by: dmlove51

What he fails to mention is that it's $10 a month for the box, another $9.95 a month for service, and another $10 premium for HDTV service

Not so - Comcast charges $5 per month for HD box without PVR, $5 more for the box with PVR, and nothing extra for the service (what service?) or for HDTV programming.

Posted by: grecorj

quote:
Originally posted by OzarkLad
What ever happened to UltimateTV? Is it still around, or did it die, or re-incarnate?

There are still units in service -- but no new units are being produced and the last software update was about a year ago.

With DTiVos @ $99 and $4.99/month, you really have to love UTV to keep paying $10/month for the service.

Posted by: jasonl99

quote:
Originally posted by dmlove51
What he fails to mention is that it's $10 a month for the box, another $9.95 a month for service, and another $10 premium for HDTV service

Not so - Comcast charges $5 per month for HD box without PVR, $5 more for the box with PVR, and nothing extra for the service (what service?) or for HDTV programming.

You are right it's not that expensive - I did pull that out of memory from someone posting earlier here. But I did look into it, and all you get is local channels in HDTV, and that requires at least a basic subscription + $5 a month specifically for HDTV. And all that gets you is the local channels. So it's about $15 a month + ~$5 for taxes etc.

My point was that if TiVo comes out with a $399 standalone box in a year or two , it would actually be cheaper to receive HDTV over the air with TiVo on a month-to-month basis than even the most basic cable service. And since it's digital, there's no difference in picture quality.

Jim Louderback made it seem like TiVo was basically going to require a second mortgage.

Posted by: MichaelK

quote:
Originally posted by dugbug
Look guys,

I know everyone here loves the product -- to the point of advocating it religiously at times.

But TIVO is in a world of hurt. My cable company is running ads for their new PVR everywhere. I have never seen a TIVO ad. Ever.

Who wanders behind the camera section of best buy to see a small tv hooked up and a web-tv looking box next to it and say "wow, show me what this is?".

The article was reasonable: This is business. The cable companies with their captured audience have built their own boxes and are marketing them relentlessly.

I can argue for hours why the Amiga was better than mac or pc back in the day, but business does not follow logic.

do they need the chips to continue to fall their way- sure. but a world of hurt? I dont think its dire or they are on the verge of death.

I have recently read that there are only 3 million dvrs out thier. Tivo software runs at least a million of those. I think Dish is a close second at this point and they are NOT competition to tivo- unless ergen cons a cable company to buy his peice of crap. So Tivo currently has the biggest chunk by far of customers where there is competition.

Now they need to keep that going, and with the dvd/tivo units they make a decent move forward. Also recently it appears that DIrectv choose Tivo of their own in house company NDS to make the next generation of DVR for them- so that front is pretty solid at the moment. They proabbly need to figure out this opencable situation pretty soon to remain a dominent player, but they arent going to die in the next few months.

Posted by: TivoGeezer

More evidence that this person lacks "Tivology" knowledge:

quote:
...TiVo came with the world's best remote control ever, even more astounding for such a fiendishly complex device. Shaped like a dog bone...

Dog bone? DOG BONE!!!??? Everyone knows it is a PEANUT! :mad: :D

Posted by: Curious Took

Hate to say it, but it's because you people are relying on Cable (yuck!). Go with DirecTV (my favorite) or some other satellite provider.

-Never been a slave to Cable and never will be!-

Posted by: dugbug

quote:
Originally posted by MichaelK
do they need the chips to continue to fall their way- sure. but a world of hurt? I dont think its dire or they are on the verge of death.

I have recently read that there are only 3 million dvrs out thier. Tivo software runs at least a million of those. I think Dish is a close second at this point and they are NOT competition to tivo- unless ergen cons a cable company to buy his peice of crap. So Tivo currently has the biggest chunk by far of customers where there is competition.

Now they need to keep that going, and with the dvd/tivo units they make a decent move forward. Also recently it appears that DIrectv choose Tivo of their own in house company NDS to make the next generation of DVR for them- so that front is pretty solid at the moment. They proabbly need to figure out this opencable situation pretty soon to remain a dominent player, but they arent going to die in the next few months.

Its ok TIVO only has 1/3 the market and new competitors? You are also suggesting the cable co's PVRs are "crap". It doesn't matter. Why did the PC win over Mac? Why did VHS win over Beta? Business rules don't follow logic. They have a great product and are cornered: fighting for the same customers the cable company already owns.

Im not meaning to imply they are going to die next month, but that they will... eventually. Something could change (ie they branch out into a new market, opencable becomes a reality, or are aquired by DirecTV or something).

Posted by: dswallow

quote:
Originally posted by dugbug
Its ok TIVO only has 1/3 the market and new competitors? You are also suggesting the cable co's PVRs are "crap". It doesn't matter. Why did the PC win over Mac? Why did VHS win over Beta? Business rules don't follow logic. They have a great product and are cornered: fighting for the same customers the cable company already owns.

Im not meaning to imply they are going to die next month, but that they will... eventually. Something could change (ie they branch out into a new market, opencable becomes a reality, or are aquired by DirecTV or something).

The worst that could happen to TiVo is they don't get as big as they possibly could.

Quite likely the DirecTV side of their business is going to overwhelm everything else until and if they do something that works with cable systems.

Even today there's people receiving all their television via rabbit ears.

Posted by: baskerj

quote:
Originally posted by ronbo
It's easier to take into the crapper than a laptop.

Not if you have a laptop...unless you take a "realllly" long time. ;)

Posted by: tomo_kun

I read "Jim Louderback", and im surprised that he is bashing TiVo. When he worked for ZDTV (now TechTV) didnt he prais TiVo, didnt he also prais napster?

Posted by: tbeckner

quote:
Originally posted by jasonl99
Jim also mentions that the cable companies are going to come out with the boxes for $10 a month. What he fails to mention is that it's $10 a month for the box, another $9.95 a month for service, and another $10 premium for HDTV service.

That is not a true statement here in Bend, Oregon. Where the new Motorola PVR is available on Bend Cable with HD capability and is being offered for under $10 per month, with no additional charges. That offer made me look twice and included a trip to Motorola Broadband on the web to review the capabilities of this new product! If this option had been available in 2000 when I bought my first TIVO (and upgraded shortly there after) or last year when I bought three DirecTIVOs, I might have made a different decision, especially since I get a $10 per month discount on cable service, since I use their broadband service.

Don't take this the wrong way, I still love my TIVOs. But, there are problems in TIVOLand, not withstanding the current DirecTIVO software problem and delayed update. The current problem was identified in December and it appears that as of today it could take until May to get all of the machines updated! The current software patch process on DirecTIVOs is broken and needs to be fixed soon, before the number of DirecTIVOs reaches a million machines or more. I cannot believe that DirecTIVO customers would actually wait for an update that could take almost a year to receive.

Still I am a loyal DirecTV and TIVO customer, but there are things brewing out there in TVLand that could create challenges for TIVO over the next couple of years. TIVO the company and TIVO customers should not hide their heads in the sand. :)

Posted by: meridian

I didn't read Louderbeck as bashing TiVo at all. He says he loves TiVo right up front. And he then raises a slew of real-world issues which are of the kind that doomed Beta to pro use and Macintosh to niche status.

Well I still have a working BetaMax and I have used Macs everyday since 1984. And like an earlier poster, at this time I also prefer SD TiVo to HDTV often. The ONLY HD shows I watch are those I don't want to record or time shift (or both).

Will I spend a grand on HD TiVo? Nope -- not until it has a built-in HD DVDR.

Posted by: Radioflyer

quote:
Originally posted by OzarkLad
What ever happened to UltimateTV? Is it still around, or did it die, or re-incarnate?

UTV is still around, but as already mentioned, no new units being sold. I didn't like the $9.99/mo fee, but after having sold it over month ago, I find that I liked it much better than my new DTivo unit.

Posted by: terminus303

It's not surprising that a PC magazine would favor a PC based solution -after all Tivo's interface may have been cool five years ago but it's pretty plain and stiff compared to a good Windows ap.

But I'm surprised he put so much faith in cable set top boxes.

If Tivo is the PVR of choice for satellite users, that's plenty of market share.

Posted by: terminus303

quote:
Originally posted by dswallow

Even today there's people receiving all their television via rabbit ears. [/B]

Do you think those people are candidates for any kind of paid PVR?

Posted by: cyril

quote:
Originally posted by ronbo
It's easier to take into the crapper than a laptop.

Unless you have a Toshiba R100, Sony x505 or Sony U101 :)

Anyway, remember that the world does not consist of the USA only.

The rest of the planet is not getting HDTV anytime soon.

Standalone DVRs will do very well for the other 3.8 billion people.

Posted by: adelimon

quote:
Originally posted by dmlove51
What he fails to mention is that it's $10 a month for the box, another $9.95 a month for service, and another $10 premium for HDTV service

Not so - Comcast charges $5 per month for HD box without PVR, $5 more for the box with PVR, and nothing extra for the service (what service?) or for HDTV programming.

Here's what it would run for me on Time Warner Cable:

New TV that supports HD - $800-$1000
TWC digital cable service - $60/month (as opposed to $48/month for analog)
TWC HD service - $10/month
TWC POS DVR - $10/month

Even if you take out the HDTV I'd need that's still an extra $32/month. Which makes a grand total of $120/month going to Time Warner when you include my broadband service. The heck with that!

Posted by: MighTiVo

quote:
Originally posted by dswallow
Do people still actually read PC Magazine? There's so many better places online for reviews of hardware and software, what else is PC Magazine good for anymore?

Also on ABCNews.com

Posted by: dugbug

quote:
Originally posted by adelimon
Here's what it would run for me on Time Warner Cable:

New TV that supports HD - $800-$1000
TWC digital cable service - $60/month (as opposed to $48/month for analog)
TWC HD service - $10/month
TWC POS DVR - $10/month

I don't get the argument you guys are putting out. Regardless of how you get the DVR (the cable company or TIVO) you are going to have an HD TV and HD service. Why else would you want an HD DVR?

We can assume the customer already has some form of HD programming to watch, correct?

To add DVR to your HD setup you would incur one of:
A) The cable company's "POS" DVR costs $0 @ ~$10/month.
B) The HD TIVO (allegedly) costs $1000 @ ~$13/month.

This is why TIVO has an uphill battle. It doesn't matter how cool or awesome the TIVO setup is. The cable company has 100% marketing access to their network customers (ie: they know who their HD customers are) and can even afford to loose money on the DVR and make it back in other services (ie: internet access).

Posted by: paulfife

quote:
Originally posted by dugbug
B) The HD TIVO (allegedly) costs $1000 @ ~$13/month.

Since the HD TiVo is a DTiVo the fee will be $5 a month (or free if you have the top package).

Posted by: DrStrange

quote:
Originally quoted/posted by dmlove51
What he fails to mention is that it's $10 a month for the box, another $9.95 a month for service, and another $10 premium for HDTV service

Not so - Comcast charges $5 per month for HD box without PVR, $5 more for the box with PVR, and nothing extra for the service (what service?) or for HDTV programming.

Not so again. I don't know what Comcast here charged for HD (until they offer an HD PVR I'm not interested) but they charge $9.95/mo for the SD DVR. What's more the Comcast rep initially quoted me another $3/mo rental fee that turned out only to apply to a neighboring city they serve, not mine.

In other words Comcast charges different fees in different areas, and someone who quotes rates that differ from yours isn't automatically wrong.

Posted by: minorthr

They were talking about this on Howard and Robin said I guess you shouldnt go buy one now

Posted by: wallstreet12345

Please help me understand.

I have a TIVO series 2 and analog cable at home. Cable wants me to upgrade to Digital if I do does that mean my Stand alone TIVO won't work?

Thanks

Posted by: dylanemcgregor

quote:
Originally posted by wallstreet12345
Please help me understand.

I have a TIVO series 2 and analog cable at home. Cable wants me to upgrade to Digital if I do does that mean my Stand alone TIVO won't work?

Thanks

Your SA TiVo will still work, but it will work a bit differently. Right now if you have analog cable that probably means you don't have a cable box. So the cable plugs directly into the TiVo, and the TiVo tuner is what changes channels. If you upgrade to digital cable you will get a cable box, the cable will go into the cable box and then go to the TiVo. The TiVo will have to send a signal to the cable box to change the channels, most likely by an IR signal. The downside to this is that it isn't as reliable, most people if they fiddle with it can get it to be reliable 99.9% of the time, but usually you will miss a channel change every few months (meaning TiVo records the wrong show).

The upsidde is that you can get more channels. It's up to you to decide if it is worth the trade off.

-Dylan

Posted by: kc51295

the author and everyone here is ignoring a potentially huge area for tivo and stand alone growth- DVD BURNERS !!! with the market for burners expected to approach 30 million in 3-4 years, tivo has a chance to be a big player here as well- just look at the rave reviews the pioneer box gets- once a product like this comes in under $500 ( ? Humax box? ) then the race is on ! the problem with burners today is that they are complicated to use correctly- Tivo solves that with one button solutions !

Posted by: jjon2121

Something everyone seems to forget. The US accounts for less than 20% of the world's electronics sales. The percentage starts out much higher when a new product is introduced and diminishes as other countries catch up.

Few countries (maybe Japan) have the same high penetration of cable or satellite programming that exists in the US. Standalone pvrs will be the standard in most countries.

Let's hope that the tivo makes inroads in other countries (likely with different pricing structures). That way our machines can come along for the ride.

Posted by: JustRichard

Jim is a smart guy, and believe me, no one loves his TiVo more than Jim. That came out in various forms throughout the article. With each mention of why "TiVo will die" he stated why the TiVo was better than the very thing that would help kill it. None the less, TiVo cannot fend off so many attackers with its current course.

And Jim isn't really saying TiVo will die. It was akin to having said in 1999 “US Robotics will die”. As it turns out, US Robotics morphed, was absorbed, spun a few different ideas, but all said and done, US robotics as we knew it in 1999 is no longer here. 56K modems are still quite popular, but they are made overseas, with no margin, and the real players use DSL or better.

TiVo has positioned itself as a software and service company. Yes, they build the Series 2 units, but that's not their main focus. Licensing and service are the cornerstone of TiVo's business. Those sources of income will get squeezed more and more as time goes by. TiVo will have to diversify, as well as fight to protect the intellectual property they own. I don’t mean to say that TiVo should become like Gemstar, producing nothing but keeping tons of lawyers around to collect licensing dollars for things created years ago, but TiVo will have to establish in court that they have a right to a cut from anyone who uses their technology.

TiVo does not go to court easily. In fact, for years they have avoided court with purpose. However, I see the filing against DISH as a great beacon that TiVo is ready to play hard ball. First, I can only assume that they have significant financial backing from DIRECTV and other partners to fight this battle. But more importantly, I don’t think TiVo would ever dare take on Charlie without extreme confidence they can win. Everyone knows Charlie is insane. It won’t just take a win in court, but an unconditional surrender, or he will keep coming back at them, and keep bleeding their war chest. They must believe the can beat him with court mandates that he pays them for anything that uses DVR technology similar to theirs, and provisions for injunctions if he fails to comply.

So it is my opinion that TiVo will not die in anything close to a short term, but TiVo may become something less recognizable than the company we have all known and loved for years. I think Jim might have meant that, too.

As for the comments about Walt Mossberg, it is absolutely true that in the first years of the DVR wars, Mossberg repeatedly gave the nod to ReplayTV. He was the thorn in TiVo’s side, as they won over countless other reviewers, but could not get the emperor himself.

TiVo is not stupid. They often work from a feeling of paranoia, and they live and breathe their category. They are created of the kind of people who live their work – not necessarily in an unhealthy way – and they have an unbelievable company morale and community. They will protect that in ways that are predictable and in ways you can’t see coming.

-RB

PS: I have an opinion on the matter because I competed against TiVo at Replay for a year and a half, and more humorously, I was mentioned (not by name) near the end of Jim L’s article.

Posted by: jwedding

My Tivo is in standby as we speak. I have one of the first HD/DVR combo units in Dallas (not the first, but they're pretty rare, it was only the second one the tech had ever installed, and I did my own install...ok back on topic,) and it's pretty nice. Is it a Tivo? Hell no. Will I probably ditch my Tivo to Mom? Yes. Don't flame me yet.

I love my Tivo, but I love HD even more. The ability to record a 2 am showing of Black Hawk Down, then play it back in 5.1HD is too powerful to ignore. I will miss season passes, and I will miss some of the searching (not much though, it just wasn't something I used that much.)

Tivo missed an opportunity when they couldn't partner with the Cable Companies. I honestly think that if I had never had a Tivo, I would be floored by the Motorola's software. The Amiga, Beta, and Apple points all come back. If you never knew there was something better, would you miss it? No. Most users will never know that the Tivo software is better, and it's a hell of a lot easier to update software than it is to invest in a new box every few years to get the upgrades from Tivo.

I know this rambles, but I wanted to throw it out there....

Posted by: GBL

RB,

glad you're still come around here every once in awhile and drop us a nugget; special ambassador, hmm, I preferred evangelist :D

Posted by: skanter

I showed Tivo to three separate friends, proclaiming it's great features and ease of use.

All three ended up going with Time Warner's PVR.

Reason? cost and setup. TW is cheaper and simpler -- the cable guy comes
and sets it up -- period. Compare that to what one must do to buy and set up a SA Tivo.

Few can understand the superiority of Tivo's features unless you work with it. The friends are all happy with the TW PVR, and it is superior in some ways to SA Tivo: TWO tuners, no quality loss. Going to a HD PVR will be as simple as calling the cable guy again and paying some more money. What do I have to do to go HD?

Tivo had better figure out a way to compete...

Posted by: ripleyj

I've told many people about TiVo's and 3 have purchased.. TiVo's. Maybe you need to extoll to your friends the importance and value of the TiVo service.

Posted by: jwedding

Don't give the guy a hard time. He's on your side, remember? How do you tell people that have bought in to HD that they can't use a Tivo with them...but the cable guys' box will work?

Maybe Tivo needs to figure out a pricing structure that's more in line with what people expect in the cable market (as they've done VERY succesfully with DirecTivo,) or they need to write off the SA market since they cannot compete with the HD offerings at a marketable price point.

Neither case is unheard of...

Posted by: mjh

quote:
Originally posted by skanter
The friends are all happy with the TW PVR, and it is superior in some ways to SA Tivo: TWO tuners, no quality loss.

No quality loss on the digital channels. But digital cable isn't all digital. It only adds digital channels on top of the already existing analog channels. Which means that they have to have an encoder in the box for the analog channels or they don't enable recording analog channels. And IIRC all of the major networks (ABC, NBC, CBS, Fox) are on analog channels. So for the vast majority of people who watch those networks, the vast majority of what they record on the TW DVR will be done with loss of quality.

quote:
Tivo had better figure out a way to compete...

Yeah, but I'm in agreement with those who don't think the situation is dire. Apple didn't beat the PC, but they're still alive and that's all that's really necessary. If TiVo dies, that's a big problem. If they survive and only hold onto a niche market, that's fine with me.

Posted by: skanter

quote:
Originally posted by mjh
No quality loss on the digital channels. But digital cable isn't all digital. It only adds digital channels on top of the already existing analog channels. Which means that they have to have an encoder in the box for the analog channels or they don't enable recording analog channels. And IIRC all of the major networks (ABC, NBC, CBS, Fox) are on analog channels. So for the vast majority of people who watch those networks, the vast majority of what they record on the TW DVR will be done with loss of quality.Yeah, but I'm in agreement with those who don't think the situation is dire. Apple didn't beat the PC, but they're still alive and that's all that's really necessary. If TiVo dies, that's a big problem. If they survive and only hold onto a niche market, that's fine with me.

Don't get me wrong -- I think Tivo is the greatest thing since sliced bread.
But it will be hard for them to compete with cable service PVRs. As much as I extolled the superiority of Tivo, in the three examples I gave (albeit anecdotal) they all went for the cable PVRs. This says something to me...
DirecTivo is a much better deal, and had they had that choice -- ?

Posted by: MichaelK

quote:
Originally posted by dugbug
Its ok TIVO only has 1/3 the market and new competitors? You are also suggesting the cable co's PVRs are "crap". It doesn't matter. Why did the PC win over Mac? Why did VHS win over Beta? Business rules don't follow logic. They have a great product and are cornered: fighting for the same customers the cable company already owns.

Im not meaning to imply they are going to die next month, but that they will... eventually. Something could change (ie they branch out into a new market, opencable becomes a reality, or are aquired by DirecTV or something).

sure and FORD will die eventually if it never builds a new model and just trys to sell 2004's for the end of time.

See RB's post and his example of USR who the hec knows what Tivo will be like in 3 years?

If they did nothing I am sure they could be in a world of hurt (or more likely a peice of the fix empire) but who says they are going to do nothing, I am SURE they will try some differnt things, for example the prospects of a stand alone as we know it now existing once all tv is digital is pretty dismal. Maybe what they do to change wont work but the premise of the articel (As I understood it) was that it was too late for Tivo to make changes. My point about owning 1/3rd of the market was to point out that it isnt too late. If they wait til they only own 1/10th of the market maybe thats too late but right now they can still make some good decisions and get a little lucky and live for quite a long time.

Who would have thought in the 90's that AOL would merge with Time Warner? THere was a time when they were small probably had only a million customers- and i think compuserve prettty much was the marklter leader. You just cant tell when the industry is so young what will shake out.

Posted by: lajohn27

In this rather wrong-headed article, written by a guy with an obvious axe to grind over spending too 'long on the phone: the "author" [and I use that word loosely] states that TiVo will not survive unless it develops a digital cable ready box.

*** I agree. ***

No really, I actually agree with the Chowderhead who wrote this P.O.S. article. I think the future for TiVo without such a device would be a much more difficult one.

And also that's a future that will never see the light of day since such a box is under development.

During the TiVo investor call at the start of March 2004, they indicated that such a box was in development and they were showing a prototype around. (or used words to that effect)

A minimum of research, or even a call to TiVo's corp. offices could have revealed that fact, *if* Chowderhead had been interested in finding out answers rather than just posing "Chicken Little" scenarios and leading questions.

As for comparing Digeo Moxi (which incidentally costs $49.95 a MONTH!!!) .. to the TiVo Service at $12.95 and complaining that TiVo Costs too much? Umm.. Hello? Huh? What?

"Paging Mr. Headupyourbutt to the brown courtesy phone..."

Maybe columnists for PC Magazine can dish out $49.95 for a digital recording box.. but *this* guy can't.

And lastly as a side note..

All these 'TiVo will die' threads are really getting tiresome.

There are these people, and these people actually show up every day to work at TiVo; they're call TiVo Employees! They get paid very good salaries to look after all the issues Jim raised.

These people called "TiVo Employees" *are* thinking down all the roads that Jim Chowderhead of PC Magazine, and the "Chicken Littles" of this message board and lots of other people don't think TiVO is somehow aware of....

Duh. An idiot could see the challenges facing TiVo, so I suspect the many MBA's and smart guys working there have them pretty well figured out too.

Either way, me, a radio disc jockey by trade, spending my precious free time, worrying about it - will not change a dang thing either way.

As a member of the media, I did listen in to that investor phone call, TIVO is very aware of all the potential trouble ahead and doing everything they can to "head it off at the pass."

(To borrow a phrase from TV's Walter Brennan.)

Until then, you'll excuse me if I go watch some of my Season Passes and *not* worry about it.

Sheesh.

Thanks,

J

PS > So glad I quit subbing to PC Magazine in 1996.

Posted by: terminus303

quote:
Originally posted by lajohn27

As for comparing Digeo Moxi (which incidentally costs $49.95 a MONTH!!!) .. to the TiVo Service at $12.95 and complaining that TiVo Costs too much? Umm.. Hello? Huh? What?

There is a PVR that costs $50 a month?
Don't you get anything besides a PVR?

Posted by: lajohn27

I have no idea.. I watched the video fro Digeo Moxi at their website and it ended with "Just 49.95 a month.." I nearly choked.

J

Posted by: jmas1_2000

I think ultimate tv went bankrupt.

Posted by: RayChuang88

...Comcast.

That's right, Comcast. They are by far the largest cable TV company in the USA; if Comcast can get a license for TiVo technology, imagine Comcast digital cable boxes with dual tuners that can be connected to a Comcast-branded TiVo unit that can record both standard and ATSC digital broadcasts.

Posted by: jones07

quote:
Originally posted by jmas1_2000
I think ultimate tv went bankrupt.

The uninformed makes the world go around............. I guess ;)

Posted by: Dmon4u

The guy who wrote the article will be on a special technology show on MS-NBC on Sunday:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4432962/

It's usually a good laugh when you watch these things because they spout a lot of garbage knowledge about technology.

Posted by: jmas1_2000

My bad...
I guess it was replay tv.

Posted by: terminus303

quote:
Originally posted by jones07
The uninformed makes the world go around............. I guess ;)

Microsoft owns Ultimate TV. The division was restructured,

Posted by: jmas1_2000

"The uninformed makes the world go around............. I guess "
You got that right

Posted by: dugbug

quote:
Originally posted by MichaelK
sure and FORD will die eventually if it never builds a new model and just trys to sell 2004's for the end of time.

LOL no the point I was trying to make was they are competing against the cable companies for access to the cable companies' customers. Imagine if Ford could only sell to GM customers, but did not know who they were. GM on the other hand regularly targets their customers with ADs and sales, as well as cross-features involving (leaving the car analogy for a second) internet access, phone service, etc.

Posted by: jones07

quote:
Originally posted by terminus303
Microsoft owns Ultimate TV. The division was restructured,

True. But that's different then going bankrupt. UTV is still a working PVR service.

Posted by: jones07

quote:
Originally posted by jmas1_2000
"The uninformed makes the world go around............. I guess "
You got that right

ahhh Was that a shot ?:cool:

Posted by: jmas1_2000

Shot, no but don't see it as stupid of a statement as you obviously saw it.
Restructure is the step right before bankruptcy (and ussually during bk), and the only reason they are still in business (imo) is because of microsoft. The Ultimate tv unit went from 500 employees to 0. Officially getting absorbed into 3 seperate units of MS.

Posted by: jmas1_2000

Jones,
I know they still make boxes. My comments were more on the health of the company. BK, Restructure, whatever...Doesn't necessarily mean you close the doors completely. I'm sure they will produce boxes as long as the public demands it.

Posted by: ddobson

He just wants free TIVO not to say that..... :D

I've only had Tivo about 3 months but can't imagine how I got along without it!!!!!

I even bought one of those cute little 6" stuffed Tivo's to put on top of my unit to draw even more attention to it!

Posted by: Hew

I was going to post something but it wouldn't let me add links to my message until I have 3 posts. So this is my third one and I'll have to start my message over again : (.

Sorry...

Posted by: Hew

"For TiVo, this has caused enough concern that the company has filed a lawsuit accusing Dish Network of intellectual property violations."

http://msnbc-cnet.com.com/2100-1041_3-5135325.html

TiVo has a rock solid case against Dish Network/Echostar, or any other DVR maker. Their Time Warp Patent is as clear as day, they have a very good chance of winning. Here is the patent:

http://www.taletyano.com/MftM/TivoTimeWarp.htm

If they win the case against Echostar, they will own the industry. That would make everyone making dvr either stop making it and license TiVo to make it for them, or pay TiVo a royalty fee for building one. TiVo has had expirience with patent infringement cases, the last one was against them. Here is how it turned out:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040210/sftu142_1.html

PS. HD TiVo is shipping !!! : D, Even though I don't have one on preorder, or DirecTV for that matter, I am a TiVo investor so this could really help out the company for this quarter. : )

PSS. Go Knicks!!!

Posted by: dmdeane

quote:
Originally posted by jmas1_2000
Jones,
I know they still make boxes. My comments were more on the health of the company. BK, Restructure, whatever...Doesn't necessarily mean you close the doors completely. I'm sure they will produce boxes as long as the public demands it.

I lost track of the conversation...were you referring to UltimateTV? AFAIK, they don't still make UTV boxes. I could be mistaken about that, but everything I have heard indicates that they weren't making any more UTV boxes. Existing customers can continue to pay monthly fees to Microsoft, but there are no software upgrades or any new hardware for future migration. Microsoft is not spending any money at all to maintain or expand the existing UTV customer base. In other words, the UTV platform is dead, barring some future change at Microsoft which seems unlikely.

Posted by: Want1394

Just what is good for everyone - resurrect a month-old thread with absolutely no new information/comments/opinions that already weren't covered completely. :rolleyes:

Posted by: RickStrobel

I can't say that TiVo will die because of this. But:

$5 extra per month
or
$12.95 per month plus $300 box

Which would you pick?

That's what's being offered in my market. The new Motorola box with PVR is only $5 more per month than the standard box. I don't care how good of a salesman you are. There's not THAT much difference between the two.

Posted by: dswallow

quote:
Originally posted by RickStrobel
I can't say that TiVo will die because of this. But:

$5 extra per month
or
$12.95 per month plus $300 box

Which would you pick?

That's what's being offered in my market. The new Motorola box with PVR is only $5 more per month than the standard box. I don't care how good of a salesman you are. There's not THAT much difference between the two.

I'd pick door #3: the DirecTV DVR. ;)

Posted by: xnevergiveinx

oh come on...when HDTV becomes the standard, i will just go out and get a setup box...i could care less if my signal isn't digital perfection...it's not that big of a deal, i am just happy to have a tivo

i think the problem is with eveyone trying to get the best possible theatre experience...just be happy with what you have, haha