TiVo Community Forums Archives - Report: DVRs to grow to 20 Million by 2005

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Report: DVRs to grow to 20 Million by 2005
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Posted by: Francesco

The Yankee Group Report from this morning's Skyreport news...

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Francesco in Montreal

Part of the TiVolution since the late 1900's!

Posted by: THEROCKER

I am pretty skeptical about that prediction.

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"Sitting on a park bench
eyeing little girls with bad intent."

Posted by: AndyK

Gee, weren't the predictions last yearthat PVR sales would top a million this year?

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I am an army of 2.0.1

Posted by: Advisor

It will happen. The technology will get cheaper and you will see a few more program guide providers enter the scene.

Once the general populace understands what a DVR can do, they'll never be satisfied with regular TV again.

Where will TIVO be in 2005?

If they don't fix, or at least acknolwedge, this 2.1 daily call problem then they sure won't be in my home!

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Real advice for real people, always free. Help is just a click away.

Sony DirecTIVO 2.0 of course, was there ever anything else?

[This message has been edited by Advisor (edited 05-15-2001).]

Posted by: Zaxxis

The largest hurdle by far for many peope is the price. When ever friends come over, they are always playing with my TiVo, drooling like a newborn baby. When they see the $400 price tag, they start thinking of "it's a fancy VCR" and want to wait a while for the price to come down.

They don't realize that once your hooked, your hooked. And IMHO, the $400 isn't that bad once you have used it for a few months. Life without TiVo sucks! I've loaned my 20hr unit for a week or too, just for the sole purpose of getting them hooked http://www.avsforum.com/ubb/smile.gif

When the 30hr unit gets below $200, then PVRs will really take off.

-Brian

Posted by: Joe Siegler

I too think price is what's keeping this from being mass accepted. Most people cringe when I tell them about the extra cost of the TiVo subscription, even if they don't think the unit price is too high.

I tell 'em to look at it as part of the unit cost, not as an "extra" cost. The point is that the "extra" cost goes to the people providing the service, if that didn't exist, it really would be a "digital VCR".

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Joe Siegler - joe@siegler.net
Webmaster - 3D Realms
Phillips non-hacked HDR31201 - Using v2.01 - Was a beta tester

Check out my list of 2.01 Season passes . :)
Also, for those who care, here's my DVD list .

Posted by: Joe Siegler

Also, as the units become more built in to things like cable boxes, satellite receivers, you'll see more and more people with them.

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Joe Siegler - joe@siegler.net
Webmaster - 3D Realms
Phillips non-hacked HDR31201 - Using v2.01 - Was a beta tester

Check out my list of 2.01 Season passes . :)
Also, for those who care, here's my DVD list .

Posted by: PDT

Aside from TiVo, UltimateTV, and Replay...who else makes a similar product, if anyone, anyways? The only company I can think of is Motorola I believe.

PDT

Posted by: brbubba

Here is an excerpt from my posting over at the WWF friend who don't like tv thread. This part is more relevant to this thread.

"When Replay first debuted, before I knew about the wonders of Tivo, their 900 dollar asking price for a 20 gigger or something was ludicrous at best. Well after some time both Tivo and Replay have come down in price and hopefully will do down even further, opening a path to a new consumer segment.

I am a little concerned though that Tivo may never get low enough, to the levels that DVD players have reached. This is simply due to the hard drive unit inside. Nowadays you would be pretty lucky to find a hard drive below 100 dollars. You could pick up a 20 gig hard drive for around 100 at some rock bottom prices, but try looking for anything less than that, like ten or even 5. Well if you are lucky enough to find it, it will actually cost you just as much. The truth of the matter is that when a certain hard drive size dips below the 100 dollar mark, based on market demand, hard drive manufacturers aren't going to make it anymore, it simply doesn't make financial sense.

So then one must ask will Tivo ever drop below the "magic" 200 price point? "Magic" meaning the so called analyst mark where any consumer electronic, like DVD, starts becoming mainstream. And my answer to that would probably be no, short of everyone adopting a new and cheap storage format. I would be curious what everyone else thinks on this..."

So zaxxis thinks that they will eventually dip below 200 bucks. Anyone else think so? I think they would be hard pressed to make money at that low a price, short of some future revolution in storage tech.

Also analysts are always full of it. They make predictions that they say are based on countless hours of research, etc. and of course when they don't come true are they held accountable? No. As far as I am concerned they think every market is taking off and you know why? Its cause they have to have positive forcasts or no one will buy their 5000 dollar reports!

Posted by: jsmeeker

quote:
Originally posted by Zaxxis:
The largest hurdle by far for many peope is the price. When ever friends come over, they are always playing with my TiVo, drooling like a newborn baby. When they see the $400 price tag, they start thinking of "it's a fancy VCR" and want to wait a while for the price to come down.

They don't realize that once your hooked, your hooked. And IMHO, the $400 isn't that bad once you have used it for a few months. Life without TiVo sucks! I've loaned my 20hr unit for a week or too, just for the sole purpose of getting them hooked http://www.avsforum.com/ubb/smile.gif

-Brian

This is a good point. think of it as a VCR,and it seems pricey. makes sense, since most VCRs are used for the Friday night movie rental from BB, and the occasional taping of a TV show that you might miss, or want to keep. Its not something you use all the time. But with TiVo, you always use the thing. Even if watching live TV, you can use it to do the trick play stuff. It gets *way* more use than a VCR. A decent VCR is about $100. TiVO is 4 times that, but I gurantee you the TiVo will get used more than 4 times more than the VCR.

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Jeff

Sony SVR-2000
"Let the Tivolution be televised"

Posted by: Francesco

quote:
Originally posted by brbubba:
...I am a little concerned though that Tivo may never get low enough, to the levels that DVD players have reached.

...That's the part I disagree with. A $149 DVD player is a $149 DVD player. Yes, all players have come down in price, and added features at the same time. But don't try to convince anyone that an entry-level DVD player isn't what it is. TiVo will help manufacturers come out with an "entry-level" product later this year, and the price will drop, and profit will climb.

Oh, and to those who balk at the service fees? I ask them what they put in their DVD players! http://www.avsforum.com/ubb/smile.gif

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Francesco in Montreal

Part of the TiVolution since the late 1900's!

Posted by: Lew Stead

quote:
Originally posted by PDT:
Aside from TiVo, UltimateTV, and Replay...who else makes a similar product, if anyone, anyways? The only company I can think of is Motorola I believe.

PDT

DISH network. I believe the DISHplayer is still the top selling PVR. It's another MS WebTV product, more or less the beta for ultimate TV.