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Tivo beats estimates
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Posted by: interactiveTV

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/020531/sff022_1.html

SAN JOSE, Calif., May 31 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- TiVo Inc. (Nasdaq: TIVO - News), the creator of and leader in television services for digital video recording, today announced financial results for its first quarter ended April 30, 2002. Revenues totaled $9.9 million, more than triple revenues of $3.2 million for the same period last year. TiVo's net loss was $25.8 million, or ($0.55) per share, excluding non-recurring accounting items related to AOL's June 2000 investment in TiVo (see below for details). This first quarter loss was approximately half the loss for the same period last year.

snip

TiVo added approximately 42,000 new subscribers in the first quarter, exceeding guidance and consensus Wall Street estimates in what has typically been its slowest quarter of the year. As of April 30, 2002, the total subscriber base exceeded 422,000. TiVo's better-than-expected net subscriber growth was the result of higher consumer demand and the early launch of national retail distribution of the TiVo Series2 DVR. In addition, TiVo successfully implemented a monthly service fee increase in the quarter, while maintaining high customer satisfaction and continuing strong demand.

Posted by: bgreen5

Sounds like they're finally on the right track. Hopefully, they'll have enough cash to allow them to remain independent (?).

What is really a pleasant surprise to me is the net 42K addition of subs for the 1st quarter. This is really phenomenal, considering that

1) Retail availability has been nearly zip for Series II until now
2) Their typical non-holiday quarters usually only increase by about 25K subs

Nice job TiVo! :)

Posted by: canyonero!

And this is the 4th straight quarter of increased earnings too.

Posted by: jmoak

quote:
Originally posted by interactiveTV
TiVo added approximately 42,000 new subscribers in the first quarter, exceeding guidance and consensus Wall Street estimates in what has typically been its slowest quarter of the year. ...

... and they had this growth during a period where the consumer had to search for a tivo! just think what they could have done if they would have had plenty of product on the shelves.... whew!

with sa series2 units beginning to be in good supply and the promise of the new dtivo series2 to follow later this year, the future certainly looks bright for tivo.

Posted by: Kenwood

Tivo's Stock is back over four bucks :D

Posted by: TheSimpsons

quote:
Originally posted by interactiveTV
As of April 30, 2002, the total subscriber base exceeded 422,000.

Nice! TiVo is coming closer and closer to that half million mark! :)

-The Simpsons :) :D :cool: :eek: :p

Posted by: foo monkey

quote:
Originally posted by Kenwood
Tivo's Stock is back over four bucks :D

mommy, he said the "s" word!

Posted by: mishagray

This is the 3RD time in a row that the quartly estimates have exceeded the analysts estimates.

The analysts are idiots!

Posted by: interactiveTV

quote:
Originally posted by mishagray
This is the 3RD time in a row that the quartly estimates have exceeded the analysts estimates.

The analysts are idiots!

You ARE joking, right? Otherwise, you have no idea how any of this works.

Tivo's guidance to the analysts SHOULD be beatable. No company sets the bar for itself to such a height where there isn't an excellent chance of exceeding those expectations. The penalty for missing estimates is much greater than the penalty for not such stellar (or not as stellar as it could be) guidance.

_ITV

Posted by: grecorj

true. but nor do analysts want to look foolish -- underestimating a cos. results too often makes it look like you don't have good relationship with management.

in the wake of the tech boom, companies are also more reluctant to make outlandish estimates and often err on the side of conservatism. beating estimates ain't what it used to be.

quote:
Originally posted by interactiveTV

You ARE joking, right? Otherwise, you have no idea how any of this works.

Tivo's guidance to the analysts SHOULD be beatable. No company sets the bar for itself to such a height where there isn't an excellent chance of exceeding those expectations. The penalty for missing estimates is much greater than the penalty for not such stellar (or not as stellar as it could be) guidance.

_ITV

Posted by: nrc

Tap, tap, tap.

My browser is broken. It's showing TiVo finacials post from iTV without the obligatory "TiVo is doomed" commentary.

Posted by: Raspewtin

"mommy, he said the "s" word!"

positive stock comments are okay, negative stock comments are not I think.

Posted by: interactiveTV

quote:
Originally posted by nrc
Tap, tap, tap.

My browser is broken. It's showing TiVo finacials post from iTV without the obligatory "TiVo is doomed" commentary.

Your weak attempt at humor aside, I haven't looked hard enough at the numbers or the call to have an opinion on this quarter. I try not to give uninformed opinion.

As for your blanket and erroneous attribution, I have never claimed Tivo is "doomed". I do, however, believe that there is an enourmous uphill climb for a company that has made some smart moves as well as some serious mistakes.

I have also long believed that Tivo is partially a victim of its and other companies inability to tap the capital markets. Whether this issue is systemic or merely one given to Tivo (I believe a combination of both) is pretty much irrelevant. Tivo *is* burning cash and the game is a dangerous one:

make it to free cash flow positive before the money is all gone without limiting growth so severely that first mover advantage is erased

That is no easy task. For any company.

I believe that your characterization of my opinions are completely false and inaccurate. That aside, I would not lessen my opinion of the difficulty of the tasks that Tivo faces. I have repeatedly stated that I don't believe Tivo would simply disappear even given a worst case scenario, which would appear to be directly contrary to your inaccurate characterization.

_ITV

Posted by: nrc

quote:
Originally posted by interactiveTV
I believe that your characterization of my opinions are completely false and inaccurate.

Sorry, I'm still having browser problems. I was doing that "exaggeration for the sake of humor" thing when I accidently pressed some kind of button and all this verbage popped out.

Posted by: bgreen5

Hey...

At least TiVo is not (yet) bankrupt, with all their assets to be purchased by Gemstar.

(see DIVA)

:eek:

Posted by: Tivoli

quote:
Originally posted by canyonero!
And this is the 4th straight quarter of increased earnings too.

Yeah, way to go Tivo! :)

Posted by: Tivoli

quote:
Originally posted by interactiveTV

I believe that your characterization of my opinions are completely false and inaccurate. That aside, I would not lessen my opinion of the difficulty of the tasks that Tivo faces. I have repeatedly stated that I don't believe Tivo would simply disappear even given a worst case scenario, which would appear to be directly contrary to your inaccurate characterization.

_ITV

Just curious, are you in the ITV business interactiveTV?

Posted by: kilcher

Similar article on USA Today, pretty much the same info...

http://www.usatoday.com/life/cyber/...vo-earnings.htm

Posted by: jones07

Is not stock talk "rise & fall " Banned here ?

Posted by: mishagray

quote:
Originally posted by interactiveTV

You ARE joking, right? Otherwise, you have no idea how any of this works.

Tivo's guidance to the analysts SHOULD be beatable. No company sets the bar for itself to such a height where there isn't an excellent chance of exceeding those expectations. The penalty for missing estimates is much greater than the penalty for not such stellar (or not as stellar as it could be) guidance.

_ITV

The analysts are the ones who are supposed to ANALYZE the guidance by Tivo. Tivo has no control over what the analysts say. The can try to influence them, but that is it.

However many of the institutional investors DO listen to analysts. (I don't know why). Tivo has been making guidance that is conservative and is achievable which is good. But analysts are supposed to be able to "read" that also. They have been hard on Tivo because Tivo started out with this promise of a 1 million customers in 2 years, which DID not happen. Since then the stock has sort of been punished much like many of the IPOs of 1999 and 2000. However this is NOT a .COM stock. Its a company that ships a product that people buy and use. Eventually they are going to figure this out. It is not unusual for analysts to make predictions that EXCEED the companies guidance. It happens all the time. For Tivo the opposite has really happened.

This is more of a basic lack of understanding of Tivo really is. Eventually the world and the financial market will figure it out.

Posted by: bgreen5

quote:
Originally posted by mishagray

This is more of a basic lack of understanding of Tivo really is. Eventually the world and the financial market will figure it out.

<hearty chorus of applause>

:)

Posted by: interactiveTV

quote:
Originally posted by mishagray
The analysts are the ones who are supposed to ANALYZE the guidance by Tivo. Tivo has no control over what the analysts say. The can try to influence them, but that is it.

If a company tells you they expect XX to YY in revenue, very few analysts will post estimates outside of that range. There would need to be some specific information and, in a the case of a company like Tivo, there really aren't any other sources. True, Tivo has no control over what analysts say, but giving guidance is basically telling them what the company, which is in a position to have the most accurate information, expects.

quote:
Originally posted by mishagray
This is more of a basic lack of understanding of Tivo really is. Eventually the world and the financial market will figure it out.

Actually, of the analysts with whom I have spoken, there is a real understanding of Tivo. I don't see what this is based on. Can you point to a specific conversation you have had? A comment? A First Call report? There is certainly an amount of skepticism concerning Tivo's current capital limitations, but I happen to think that viewpoint is the prudent one.

Considering Tivo's risks and situation, I don't see that the financial markets are unfairly treating Tivo. But I want to avoid stock talk.

I think *if* Tivo gets large enough to matter to many people, then those who don't care might take a look. With less than a million shares trading daily, a small market cap, and difficult situation, I don't think Tivo is being singled out. I don't see this as a lack of understanding but a lack of concern. Few funds will go near any company with these attributes (illiquid, small-cap, etc). That's how it goes. Eventually, maybe, Tivo gets bigger.

_ITV