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>>> Lack of HDTV support will KILL TiVo. Moxi, Dish Network <<<

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redheadboy is offline Old Post 11-21-2002 12:35 AM
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redheadboy
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Location: San Diego, Ca
Posts: 72

I don't think that this is an issue that will kill tivo (until analog signal is cut off at least). I also do not think that it is as difficult to implement as people are saying.

For the space issue, there is no reason that a directivo can't record all formats. It currently just stores the pre-compressed mpeg stream. With hd digital signals, it is the same issue. The stream may be 1080i, 720p, 480p, or good old 480i. To the new hd-directivo, it is just another mpeg stream. A given drive might have 2 hd programs, and 30 standard programs stored on the drive.

Will it be out soon ? I can hope, but won't hold my breath. Will it be out eventually ? yes.

As some have commented, I would be seriously tempted to get a hd-pvr from any vendor, but I would not abandon my current tivos, I would use it in conjunction with the new box.

Ok, I admit it. I am addicted to TIVO, and there is no 12 step program for it. I will plead and grovel to get an hd-tivo to continue my habit.

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Last edited by redheadboy on 11-21-2002 at 12:38 AM

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allan is offline Old Post 11-21-2002 12:40 AM
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I recently saw an ad for a 60" HDTV. Only thing is, my living room is the perfect size for my 19" set! Not to mention the very high price! From what I've seen, HDTV is nowhere near ready! And the fact that they want to force us into it puts a bad taste in my mouth!! If they cut off analog broadcasts, I'd throw my set out the window before I'd buy HDTV!!!

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Sepia is offline Old Post 11-21-2002 12:42 AM
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Sepia
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Registered: Jan 2002
Location: Los Angeles
Posts: 52

quote:
Originally posted by redheadboy
I don't think that this is an issue that will kill tivo (until analog signal is cut off at least). I also do not think that it is as difficult to implement as people are saying.


I would have agreed with you if there were no competition. DishPVR921 and Moxi have already announced HDTV support, even though the products themselves are not here, they have announced support for it.

If TiVo continues to ignore that market segment, they will no longer be the leader in PVR. Once they lose leadership, it's a slippery slope to dying as a viable company. (witness 3Dfx vs. nVidia).

- Sepia

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kimsan is offline Old Post 11-21-2002 12:57 AM
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kimsan
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Registered: Jan 2002
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quote:
Originally posted by redheadboy
I don't think that this is an issue that will kill tivo (until analog signal is cut of at least), but I don't think that it is as difficult to implement as people are saying.

For the space issue, there is no reason that a directivo can't record all formats. It currently just stores the pre-compressed mpeg stream. With digital signal, it is the same issue. The stream may be 1080i, 720p, 480p, or good old 480i. To the new hd-directivo, it is just another mpeg stream. A given drive might have 2 hd programs, and 30 standard programs stored on the drive.

Will it be out soon ? I can hope, but won't hold my breath. Will it be out eventually ? yes.

As some have commented, I would be seriously tempted to get a hd-pvr from any vendor, but I would not abandon my current tivos, I would use it in conjunction with the new box.

Ok, I admit it. I am addicted to TIVO, and there is no 12 step program for it. I will plead and grovel to get an hd-tivo to continue my habit.



I tend to agree with your assessment. Feasibility (at least in the DirecTiVo line) is almost a non-issue. All the pieces exist, but are currently separated into either an HD DTV receiver or a DTiVo and I'm sure many people have both. I see them as immediate adopters when the combo unit becomes available.

I'll be next in line after them, but only when more HD content is available. One freebie and two premiums (neither of which I subscribe to) just isn't worth the expense of an HD TV and receiver as yet.

The trusty analog 31' is still big enough to make letter-boxed DVDs and other shows enjoyable and the $$$ I didn't spend on an HD set today will buy me a better set "tomorrow" when the content is really available here in my house.

For those currently equipped for HD, keep up the good work of making your desire for an HDTiVo known. I'm sure when a critical mass of potential customers is reached, they'll be a unit ready for you.

The rest of us mainstream and Joe Sixpack viewers will join you sometime shortly after the bleeding edge has passed.

cheers,

kim

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J4yDubs is offline Old Post 11-21-2002 01:01 AM
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J4yDubs
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quote:
Originally posted by BlankMan
Manufactures aren't going to go after a nitch market, they'll wait till they can sell tens of thousands of them in the first month. And that ain't there yet.

I think it's closer than you believe. Next year will be the turning point. There's also alot of advantages to getting a head start on everyone else.

quote:
But now that people were exposed to 35 hours, 60 hours, 80 hours for stock units, it'd be a hard sell to get Joe Public to go back to 20 hours.

I've heard this a couple of times now. These numbers that you're quoting are for Basic (except 35 which I assume is for DirecTV). They are much less for Best. It's misleading to quote the higher numbers to compare against HD.

There's also no reason that you couldn't have these same quality levels for HDTV. It kinda defeats the purpose of HDTV, but I could see people wanting to specify the compress level for even HDTV to save space. I won't even go into using a different compression than MPEG-2...

Will TiVo go out of business if they don't have a HDTiVo out in the next year or two? No. Will they fall behind and have to play catchup? Yes. Will they lose customers that would have purchased a HDTiVo and instead purchased something else. Well, at least 1...

John

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Raj is offline Old Post 11-21-2002 01:33 AM
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quote:
Originally posted by Sepia
I would have agreed with you if there were no competition. DishPVR921 and Moxi have already announced HDTV support, even though the products themselves are not here, they have announced support for it.



That's typical dish network marketing by the way. Announce a product way in advance then keep putting off the release date.

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BlankMan is offline Old Post 11-21-2002 01:42 AM
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BlankMan
TiVo Forum Special Member

Registered: Mar 2002
Location: WI
Posts: 1438

quote:
Originally posted by Sepia
would have agreed with you if there were no competition. DishPVR921 and Moxi have already announced HDTV support, even though the products themselves are not here, they have announced support for it.

If TiVo continues to ignore that market segment, they will no longer be the leader in PVR. Once they lose leadership, it's a slippery slope to dying as a viable company. (witness 3Dfx vs. nVidia)




From everything I've read, Dish PVR's have been notoriously junk, I have no faith in a product from a company who has that reputation. Especially if it's being rushed to market just to be first.

Wouldn't it be a hoot amid all this conjecture, TiVo came out and made an announcement HD TiVo will be on store shelves Monday'? Seems to me they tend to work that way. I ignore companies that sell futures. I wait till it's on the shelf and I can look at it. MTH a toy train manufacture announced their latest and greatest, best thing since sliced bread, remote control system for toy trains, to compete with Lionel who has had one out for something like 3-5 years now. Saw the MTH one on the shelf for the first time last week, over two years since that announcement. Yeah right...

quote:
Originally posted J4yDubs
These numbers that you're quoting are for Basic



Nope. 35 = Series 1. 60, 80 = Series 2. All DTiVos.

It's misleading to quote the higher numbers to compare against HD.

Nope. Basic as you say records at ~1Mb/sec. Early in this thread is was reported that HDTV uses a 19.5Mb/sec data stream, and you can't compress it any more. 20 times Basic. So, an 80 hour DTiVo at that bit rate (80/20) would give you 4 hours of recording time. You gonna buy one for $1000? Or even $500? A 200G drive would give you ~20 hours, but add $200-$300 to the price tag. How many people are going to buy a 20 hour DTiVo for $700-$1000 in the next 6 months?

specify the compress level for even HDTV to save space

Because they're already compressing it to it's bleeding edge, any more then you'd start complaining about PQ. That's why there are no 'Quality' settings on a DTiVo. Just like now, when DTV tweaks the compression to add more content, people start whining all over the place. Can't have it both ways.

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Sepia is offline Old Post 11-21-2002 01:49 AM
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Sepia
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quote:
Originally posted by raj2001
That's typical dish network marketing by the way. Announce a product way in advance then keep putting off the release date.


I don't see that as a negative, unless they lie about the release date. It is good to know that next year there will be a DishPVR 921, as well as a product by Moxi, which Charter Communications (my cable provider) has already annouced they will be using early next year.

How bad would you feel if you spent lots of money on a Sony HD200, DirecTiVo, and in a few months, what you really wanted suddenly popped up in the form of DishPVR921 or Moxi? I'd much rather know what's down the pipeline so I can decide for myself if I should wait or not for what I really want.

The problem with TiVo is that I don't think they even have HDTV on the radar at all. Sure, they are struggling to survive, but an HDTV product will not cost them an arm and a leg. It will NOT deter from their current struggle for profit, but WILL set them up as the market leader for the long term.

It is a horrible marketing mistake, or PR mistake (if they are working on HDTV and keeping quiet), to be this DEAD SILENT on the biggest technological advance in TV history, since color TV.

Next year HDTV will explode. My concern is that TiVo will caught off guard, and thus get killed.

Yes, it's been years that HDTV sets have been out, but if you're following CEIDA, and all the other trade shows, and seeing the trends, HDTV is poised for an explosion very soon.

Charter Communications, Time Warner, and a host of other cable providers already have started rolling out HDTV through Cable (no need for Off The Air antennas), and Sony, Samsung, RCA, etc... have and are releasing HDTV Tuners both Off the Air and DirecTV with full support for DVI hdcp etc...

This is like Microsoft getting cought off guard by the sudden explosion of the internet. Luckily for them, they managed to completely focus on it and drive Netscape out of business in time. You can only hope TiVo has such leadership, for the sake of their own company.

- Sepia

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andyf is offline Old Post 11-21-2002 01:54 AM
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andyf
Long time TiVo user

Registered: Feb 2000
Location: Houston, TX, USA
Posts: 305

quote:
Originally posted by Sepia
INext year HDTV will explode. My concern is that TiVo will caught off guard, and thus get killed.



Given this thread and the many that preceded it I doubt they're off guard.

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Breacagan is offline Old Post 11-21-2002 01:56 AM
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Breacagan
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quote:
Originally posted by allan
I recently saw an ad for a 60" HDTV. Only thing is, my living room is the perfect size for my 19" set! Not to mention the very high price! From what I've seen, HDTV is nowhere near ready! And the fact that they want to force us into it puts a bad taste in my mouth!! If they cut off analog broadcasts, I'd throw my set out the window before I'd buy HDTV!!!
The smaller the set, the less you'll pay. Full HDTV-resolution direct-view 27" 4:3 and 30" 16:9 sets are currently available for $700 and $1000, respectively. These are still a bit big for your living room, but I'm sure that even smaller HDTV displays are on their way for even lower prices.

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JPriller is offline Old Post 11-21-2002 02:12 AM
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JPriller
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quote:
Originally posted by kimsan
For those currently equipped for HD, keep up the good work of making your desire for an HDTiVo known. I'm sure when a critical mass of potential customers is reached, they'll be a unit ready for you.
There ought to be a smiley in here somewhere (okay, here: ) but I really would like to thank all those folks that've bought $1500+ HDTV units, and hope they and those like them keep doing so until the price gets driven below $500 and I can get one.

Now, if anyone would like to thank me for buying $6000 personal computers for 20 years so that they can now get one for $700, feel free.

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feldon23 is offline Old Post 11-21-2002 02:12 AM
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feldon23
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Registered: Mar 2001
Location: Houston, TX
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quote:
allan said:
I recently saw an ad for a 60" HDTV. Only thing is, my living room is the perfect size for my 19" set! Not to mention the very high price! From what I've seen, HDTV is nowhere near ready! And the fact that they want to force us into it puts a bad taste in my mouth!! If they cut off analog broadcasts, I'd throw my set out the window before I'd buy HDTV!!!

Ah yes, more people who have not clue 1 about HDTV.

First, if you have digital cable or satellite, you will probably be able to keep the same setup and TV for 10-20 years. All switching to digital means is rabbit ears will stop working in a few years on that old TV you have sitting in the bedroom.

If your living room is the perfect size for a 19" set why the hell are you looking at 60" HDTVs? RCA has a 38" HDTV for $1600, less than twice the price of an ordinary 32" TV. Zenith will have picture tube HDTVs out next year for $700-900. Also, can I ask how many square feet your living room is? 32" is my bare minimum for a decent living room.

They aren't forcing us, they are forcing broadcasters.


quote:
J4yDubs said:
I've heard this a couple of times now. These numbers that you're quoting are for Basic (except 35 which I assume is for DirecTV). They are much less for Best. It's misleading to quote the higher numbers to compare against HD.

There's also no reason that you couldn't have these same quality levels for HDTV. It kinda defeats the purpose of HDTV, but I could see people wanting to specify the compress level for even HDTV to save space. I won't even go into using a different compression than MPEG-2...

There is no affordable circuitry to downres/recompress HDTV and store it on a hard drive. I think people can choose to record either the SD channel or the HD channel. Course this is going to get tough since all major football and basketball games next year will be HD, along with all major primetime shows. My 120 hour DirecTiVo would be full if all the The District, 24, Law & Order 1-3, and The Guardian episodes I have saved up were all recorded from the HD channel (24 is digital but not high def).

quote:
BlankMan said:
How many people are going to buy a 20 hour DTiVo for $700-$1000 in the next 6 months?

That records High Def? a LOT. I'll probably pick and choose the shows that benefit most from HD and record them that way and record the rest standard definition. Remember 120 GB hard drives were $300 a year ago--now they are $120. You need to think and plan ahead my friend.


HDTV is indeed set to explode next year. You guys obviously don't see it. But with the rollout of Monday Night Football on ABC in High Def, and the addition of a second HDTV sports channel, ESPN HD, things are really going to take off. In the next 12-18 months, it will be impossible to justify buying an analog television when you have digital televisions sitting right next to them for only 15-30% higher price.

Most people just assume their cable provider does not have HDTV channels. I still hear people say "but cable companies don't carry HD channels" which is not true. Time Warner has carried HBO HD and Showtime HD for years in ~20 markets and they along with AT&T and Comcast are rolling out local channels in HD on their cable systems. They certainly have the bandwidth. Most digital cable was rolled out in the last 5-8 years so there is plenty of room on the wires.

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Last edited by feldon23 on 11-21-2002 at 02:15 AM

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Sepia is offline Old Post 11-21-2002 02:35 AM
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Sepia
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Registered: Jan 2002
Location: Los Angeles
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quote:
Originally posted by andyf
Given this thread and the many that preceded it I doubt they're off guard.


They have so far managed to ignore this thread and the many that preceded it (re HDTV). They will get caught off guard alright unless they shift focus now.

- Sepia

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kimsan is offline Old Post 11-21-2002 02:51 AM
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kimsan
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quote:
Originally posted by JPriller
There ought to be a smiley in here somewhere (okay, here: ) but I really would like to thank all those folks that've bought $1500+ HDTV units, and hope they and those like them keep doing so until the price gets driven below $500 and I can get one.

Now, if anyone would like to thank me for buying $6000 personal computers for 20 years so that they can now get one for $700, feel free.





Maybe I should have thrown in the smiley, but I meant it sincerely. Those one the bleeding edge are the ones proving that there *IS* a market for whatever.

quote:
Originally posted by feldon23
... RCA has a 38" HDTV for $1600, less than twice the price of an ordinary 32" TV. Zenith will have picture tube HDTVs out next year for $700-900. ... 32" is my bare minimum for a decent living room.



I don't mean to be argumentative, but that $1600 is more than FIVE TIMES the price of the 31" I bought a couple years back. Your standards may be a higher, but it's big enough for my living room. If you're talking wide screen, I'm with you. I'd definitely hate to lose the vertical screen height I already have.

For me, the cost/benefit ratio just isn't there yet. Ask me again after the "explosion" hits DTV

cheers,

kim

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BlankMan is offline Old Post 11-21-2002 03:18 AM
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BlankMan
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Registered: Mar 2002
Location: WI
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quote:
feldon23 said
That records High Def? a LOT.



Wow. You would? I wouldn't. I'll admit here, even after watching HDTV myself, I just can't comprehend that kind of money on something that basically comes down to, watching TV. I don't understand if it's an infatuation, addiction or what. I really really can't. I guess I don't watch enough TV. I don't rent movies either. And I don't do Pay-per-View either. And I don't go to movies either. Wonder if I'm missing anything?


The other thing is that a lot of people are saying that HD is going to explode in the next year. Ok. If it does, when it does, there will probably be HD DVR's available. So why complain that HD DVR's are not there (here) now? Today?

__________________
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Action is offline Old Post 11-21-2002 03:22 AM
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Action
New Member

Registered: Aug 2002
Location: Central Virginia
Posts: 20

Gosh, lots of people have lost sight of what TiVo is...

TiVo is NOT hardware. Anyone can make hardware. Software is what sets TiVo apart from a Dish PVRXXX setup. I know, I have both a TiVo SA Series2 and a PVR501 (and a defunct DishPlayer as well sitting in the basement). BTW, the PVR501 is a decent timer based setup, which is the cheapest and easiest way for a company to enter the PVR market. Thankfully TiVo did not take the easy way into the market.

The technical issues surrounding the production of a HD capable box is not a biggie. If TiVo wanted to make one, its just a matter of making the right choices, building the box, and getting the biggest hard drive out there. But which choices are the right ones to make? Can you guarantee that what you produce now will not be dead and gone within 3 years or less? Do you go DVI and risk that you'll be sued or nix DVI and risk being a has been if it ever catches on? DVI is about the nicest format out there for distribution, but very few TVs (even the newest models) have an input for it. Do you integrate a decoder on your box for more money (remember the early adopters already have an STB) or do you depend that HD enthusiasts will have STBs that will decode the data streams and make those that purchase your box buy an STB as well? Keep in mind that many HDTVs in the next couple of years will have integrated HDTV tuners built in, most HDTVs now are just monitors. Do you build a box that you know will require major changes within 1-2 years or do you wait and build one that will last a 3 year production life cycle? TiVo is not a big corporation that has deep pockets and can risk a flop, a new product line must succeed.

I for one am more concerned about TiVo's lack of movement on new software features to continue to drive home the differentiation between their product and timer based products. Cool features is what TiVo is all about and is what will sell its product. Surely folders, larger drive support (gotta have this for effective HD setups, so get working on this), record based on number of stars (I'd love to record all 4 star movies), sharing recordings on a TiVo network in the house, etc. is more important for TiVo's long term survival than an HD PVR...

Those with HD setups, keep pushing for an HDPVR. It is the wave of the future. But TiVo is the here and now, and does not need a cash drain at the moment. I'm sure that TiVo would happily deal with any large corp that wanted to use its software on an HDPVR, its just that TiVo isn't going to take the risk right now and do it alone.

If you want to record HDTV now, there is one solution for the early adopters. Build an AV PC and install as many hard drives as you need for the amount of recording you want. With IDE RAID setups, 50-100+ hours of HD recording is certainly more than possible. Its cheaper to do this than buy a Plasma, thats for sure...

Last edited by Action on 11-21-2002 at 03:30 AM

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Sepia is offline Old Post 11-21-2002 03:37 AM
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Sepia
TiVo Special Member

Registered: Jan 2002
Location: Los Angeles
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Re: Gosh, lots of people have lost sight of what TiVo is...

Action,

Very intelligent comments, and food for thought. Perhaps TiVo needs to more agressively pursue DirecTV to license TiVo for an HD unit that records OTA HDTV as well as the direct stream. DirecTV has many boxes out right now with DVI hdcp and OTA + DirecTV HD support (Sony HD200, Samsung T160 etc...).

As for the DVI issues, Dish PVR921 will have DVI with hdcp out. I don't think there's a legal concern here.

You are right, in that TiVo is now more of a software than a hardware, but that software license needs to make its way to HDTV recorders sooner than the competition if it is to survive.

By completely ignoring the HDTV market, people will realize that as cool as the TiVo software is, at the end of the day, the ability to record HDTV and watch our favorite shows in HDTV supercedes things like "Season Pass Manager."

Yes, an HTPC can do what we want, but they have their own problems as well, let's not get into them right now.

- Sepia.

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feldon23 is offline Old Post 11-21-2002 03:42 AM
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Action,

I don't think TiVo can make any money on a standalone HDTV recorder. It MUST record the raw digital streams directly to the hard drive to be economical.

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Squeak is offline Old Post 11-21-2002 04:00 AM
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Squeak
An Inert Gas

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Location: Columbus, Ohio
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quote:
Originally posted by feldon23
Course this is going to get tough since all major football and basketball games next year will be HD ...


This is the second time you have said this, and I will ask again:

I haven't seen any announcement from ABC about any College Football being in HiDef (and I consider the Fiesta Bowl, the Rose Bowl, and OSU/UM to be major games).

Also, there has be no announcement from CBS or FOX about weekly NFL games being in HiDef.

I think what you are saying is that all 'big events', but the conotation you are using makes is sounds like all 'major league' football and basketball games will be in HD -- which is not true either.

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feldon23
MythBuster

Registered: Mar 2001
Location: Houston, TX
Posts: 1821

ABC has not made any comment on college football in HDTV at this time.

Weekly Monday Night Football games on ABC will be HD in 2003.
Weekly Saturday Night Football games on ESPN will be HD in 2003.

I don't have NBC's commitment to NBA games handy.

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