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>>> Does this reporter know something we don't? <<<

 
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stoli412 is offline Old Post 06-28-2004 07:37 PM
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stoli412
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Question Does this reporter know something we don't?

Or is it just a bunch of exaggerations and inaccuracies?

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=sto...after_directv_1

In particular he says that the Tivo/Directv relationship is all but dead, and Directv is going to start offering a low-cost NDS-based DVR by the end of the year. This goes against all the info being posted in this forum and elsewhere. Where did he get this stuff?

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ebonovic is offline Old Post 06-28-2004 08:10 PM
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ebonovic
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Once again... It is a reporter extrapolating a sensation story.

Every point he makes in his article can be argued a different direction.

The Tivo/DirecTV contract is till 2007. If there is a buyout of it, I am sure TiVo will do just fine with it.

The whole DTV sold their stock and removed their member from TiVo's board, can be spun a million different ways. (I look at as DTV is just trying to revert and focus on their core product, As they also sold off their manufacturing division as well).

Either way, we see one of these type articles about every two weeks or so.

He gets the stuff by taking the facts out their, and reading boards like this to help figure out which way he should write the article to sell the most papers.

And the "most customers will choose the cheaper NDS offering?"
How much cheaper can it be? The units are only $99, or $49, or even less depending on promotion. And The DVR fee is only $5 a month, per account. I think most people who don't have a TiVo powered DVR will try the NDS version, but once you go TiVo it will be very hard to go back. (IMHO).

TiVo and their pricing structure changes are nothing more then them trying to adjust to the growing market. It sucks being the leader and bleading edge, when people then come along and take your best and most used features and slap them into a lower cost box, with less R&D to re-coop.
Oh well.. So goes buisness...

Bottom line: DTV power by TiVo is here at least for another 3-4 years as a new unit. And the "support" for those units, as in Guide Data, is probably going to be around as long as DTV is supporting this particular video stream format... AKA much longer then the lifetime of the DTivos. (IMHO)

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Fish Man is offline Old Post 06-28-2004 08:27 PM
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The reporter is essentially clueless.

DirecTV is talking to TiVo about writing software for a simpler 1 tuner version of the DirecTiVo.

The thinking is, include at least one of these entry-level DVRs with every new install, then the 2 tuner unit (like the ones we are familiar with) would be an extra cost upgrade. The HD-DTiVo, then being the super-premium upgrade.

The point is, they are talking to TiVo about designing this box, there is no actual indication whatsoever that they are moving to introduce an NDS-based DVR into the US market.

Several reporters, who are trying to show how much they know, have been suggesting that the DirecTiVo will be replaced with an NDS-based PVR for the simple reason that Newscorp owns NDS.

However, actual actions of DirecTV, even since being acquired by Newscorp indicate that they are still actively working with TiVo. The contract with TiVo lasts until 2007, and the current behavior of DirecTV suggests that the relationship will last beyond that as well.

It is true that DirecTV sold off their TiVo stock recently. At they same time, they divested themselves of lots of other stock holdings as well.

The selling of this stock holding has nothing whatsoever to do with the technology partnership with TiVo. These are two completely different things! People who try to closely tie these two things together are simply showing a misunderstanding about how technology partnerships in general, work.

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Dawnathan is offline Old Post 06-29-2004 03:57 AM
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Dawnathan
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quote:
Originally posted by Fish Man
The reporter is essentially clueless.

*snip*

The selling of this stock holding has nothing whatsoever to do with the technology partnership with TiVo. These are two completely different things! People who try to closely tie these two things together are simply showing a misunderstanding about how technology partnerships in general, work.



You brought up agood point. Also, it seems to me that DTV divesting themselves of TiVo stock because they knew they were going to dissolve the relationship would be a form of insider trading, wouldn't it? Anyone here have enough familiarity with SEC regulations to weigh in on this?

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smak is offline Old Post 06-29-2004 07:13 AM
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If Directv decides to replace every one of their boxes with a PVR (hypthetically), wouldn't tivo do backflips and cartwheels to do anything to get their business.

Directv has no information that says their churn rate will stay the same with any PVR. The info they have now says people stick around at greater %'s with a box with Tivo software.

I think it would be a big gamble for them to just think any ol' PVR will do.

-smak-

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Bananfish is offline Old Post 06-29-2004 07:32 AM
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Bananfish
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quote:
Originally posted by Dawnathan
You brought up agood point. Also, it seems to me that DTV divesting themselves of TiVo stock because they knew they were going to dissolve the relationship would be a form of insider trading, wouldn't it? Anyone here have enough familiarity with SEC regulations to weigh in on this?


That wouldn't be insider trading. Even if D* knew they were going to dissolve the relationship, that would be knowledge inside to D* - not inside to TiVo. The shares sold were TiVo shares, so only information inside to TiVo would be relevant for insider trading.

On the other hand, if D* had learned that *TiVo* had planned on dissolving the relationship (if, say, a D* employee on the TiVo Board of Directors learned it at a Board meeting), that would be information inside to TiVo and D* might well be guilty of insider trading.

Even then, if the relationship wasn't going to be dissolved for 6 months, the SEC might not get too excited.

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Dan Collins is offline Old Post 06-29-2004 07:42 AM
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It is also worth noting that the NDS option (Sky+) is FAR from the "cheaper" option. The units are more expensive than DirecTiVos and the monthly fee (if you don't take the required minimum package) is FAR greater than the $4.95 DVR service fee.

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Rombaldi is offline Old Post 06-29-2004 08:23 AM
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quote:
Originally posted by Dan Collins
It is also worth noting that the NDS option (Sky+) is FAR from the "cheaper" option. The units are more expensive than DirecTiVos and the monthly fee (if you don't take the required minimum package) is FAR greater than the $4.95 DVR service fee.


In the UK, where they have no real competition... since they are not offered here, you can't say what Rupert would do to stick it to Charlie...

so an acccurate statement, but meaningless in the US till they offer it.

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AbMagFab is offline Old Post 06-29-2004 08:29 AM
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It's insider trading if you know something is going to happen that will significantly effect the stock, up (buying) or down (selling), and that information isn't available to the general trading public, and you act on it. It doesn't have to be Tivo information in this case.

If DTV were going to shed itself of Tivo completely, selling all Tivo stock would be a problem.

In reality, DTV knows that something will happen, either very positive (all DTV DVR's are Tivo) or very negative (NDS becomes the new DVR) for Tivo. By selling Tivo stock now, they deal with the future negative (likely 6-36 months out at worst), and with the future positive.

The only thing we really know for sure is DTV won't be buying Tivo. Other than that, their actions can be interpreted either as something negative, and equally as something positive for Tivo.

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Fustanella is offline Old Post 06-29-2004 06:29 PM
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I've yet to see a reporter know more than the gang here.

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herdfan is offline Old Post 06-29-2004 08:38 PM
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herdfan
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quote:
Originally posted by AbMagFab
It's insider trading if you know something is going to happen that will significantly effect the stock, up (buying) or down (selling), and that information isn't available to the general trading public, and you act on it. It doesn't have to be Tivo information in this case.

IIRC, it was a private placement sale which does not fall under the insider trading rules of the SEC. They did not sell the stock into the open market.

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Dan Collins is offline Old Post 06-30-2004 02:43 AM
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Dan Collins
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quote:
Originally posted by Rombaldi
In the UK, where they have no real competition... since they are not offered here, you can't say what Rupert would do to stick it to Charlie...

so an acccurate statement, but meaningless in the US till they offer it.

True...but then so are all the inferences of DirecTV even offering a Sky+ unit in the US just because they have developed the software in the UK. In the UK there is no other integrated PVR/IRD unit, and TiVo struggled to maintain distribution. Different markets, different dynamics - on both sides of the equation.

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